I originally wrote a few pages of scenarios explaining the need for the following kit and posture levels based on possible risks, but later deleted it because the fact of the matter is this...
If you can't imagine a scenario where this kind of gear is needed, then there is no point in me trying to convince you. IYKYK
Bottom line is, I have weapons and a plan for the defense of my property and family from those who would do them harm in the case of an "event", specifically a grid-down scenario. Do you?
Without power there is no fuel, without fuel there are no trucks delivering food, without deliveries there is nothing left on the shelves in less than three days.
The average household has less than two weeks of stored food to survive on, in the country it obviously better.
You are your own defender, there is no one coming to rescue you, especially when the thin veneer of society is pealed back as people start to go hungry, I suggest you prepare accordingly.
Nobody knows for sure what the timeline of collapse will look like but judging off of minor events in the past 30 years, I'd say it's likely to be faster than we imagine.
POSTURE LEVEL 1: (Every Day Carry)
Event Timeline: Pre-event and early beginnings
Having weapons on you allows you to overcome larger and more powerful opponents. It also allows you a fighting chance against multiple attackers.
A handgun is the most powerful tool for doing so that can remain concealed until it is needed. Your day-in-day-out condition should have you always armed with a handgun, fighting knife, powerful flashlight, and means of making fire and stopping major bleeding at all times IMO.
My personal load out is ever changing depending on the weather, but a Gun/Knife/Light/TQ minimum combo is always on me and usually a bit more medical.
In the beginnings of SHTF, I would also add the following.
FT-70DR Digital HT's for "secure" comms
Leica LRF-1600
Makes a great monocular, you will want to see what's coming down the road and a small monocular fits easily in a pocket.
This is the base layer that all others are built upon and it is always concealed from casual observation. It's called "concealed carry" for a reason! There is no advantage to being overt at this stage of the game.
POSTURE LEVEL 2: (BATTLE BELT)
Event Timeline: Early beginnings to months in.
The "Battle Belt" allows for more ammo and better suited tools to fight with than your EDC, like a WML and a spare mag for a carbine.
You should be running a full-size handgun as your primary weapon and the Battle Belt provides the needed real-estate to hold support gear for it while allowing easy / quick access.
It allows for a basic load out during an event that can be worn comfortably around the homestead, allowing work to be done while providing enough firepower to get to a rifle if need be as well as some medical.
A SIDE-NOTE ABOUT HANDGUN PROFICIENCY
Most shooters are not very proficient with a handgun because it takes effort and time to really get good with one, where a carbine is much easier to make hits given the same amount of time/effort.
I spent a few years in competition shooting (ISPC/IDPA/3-GUN) until I felt confident in my abilities with a handgun. I used competition as a way to prove my gear and myself and I highly recommend everyone do the same. Competition is not "tactics", it's shooting. You don't need a gun to learn tactics, make sure you know the difference.
I do not consider someone a "skilled shooter" until they have obtained the proficiency of the IPSC (B-Class) or IDPA (Master Class) brackets.
Not saying you have to be a competitor, just be able to shoot as well as one in these brackets as a minimal standard.
Even then, it’s a diminishing skill, but even on a bad day or having not shot for a year or more, a B-Class/Master shooter will retain the ability to get the job done IMO.
Mr. Murphy always has a say though, stay up on you shooting skills or at least test yourself ever so often to get a reality check of where your capabilities are.
Everyone thinks they are a great shot until they put themselves on the clock (get a PACT timer) or against competitive shooters. Competition allows you to see your progress and assess yourself against others and usually provides one with a good dose of needed reality.
I have worked with LEO's that would rather "think" they know how to shoot than show up at a match and have to admit they don't. Don't fall into that trap, get trained up!
Level Two is about running a "combat worthy" handgun as your primary weapon system in an efficient overt setup.
With three mags of ammo 22rnds in gun plus two spare mags of 22rnds, 66 rounds should be plenty to end a fight or get to a fight-ender, your carbine, which should be located nearby.
A weapon mounted light is a must at this point, as I am NOT going outside the house without my "battle belt" on, day or night when things are unsettled enough to be in a LEVEL TWO posture.
It's critical that your belt be setup so that it's comfortable 24/7, you will be living in it at this point in the game.
I have spent over three years (at the time of this writing, 2023) working in this setup around the homestead making sure there were no "hot spots" or range of motion issues.
I also discovered during that time that a harness is an absolute must because it allows the rig to be used over outer garments and adjusted loosely as well as increase comfort by not having to tighten down on the hips. Once you put AR mag(s) and medical and several pistol mags, a multi-tool, etc. on the belt it’s going to get heavy, suspender keep it from dragging your pants down.
The harness also allows you to open the belt and lift it up while driving to increase comfort as well as add comfort to tasks that require lots of up/down reps like moving rocks around the homestead of splitting wood.
I see this posture level coming into play a month after a grid-down scenario, when people still have food and are mostly staying home but starting to see how others are affected in the community. People with gen-sets are living comfortably and hoping to "ride out" the storm at this point.
BATTLE BELT CONTENTS
CAT-T
G17 w/ WML & RedDot, 22rnd
Custom Fighter Fixed Blade
SO Tech IFAK
Trident-9 Suppressor
Leatherman Supertool
AR15 Mag
Spare 22rnd x2
Those without are starting to wander out. Remember, most Americans have less than two weeks’ worth of food in their house. Rural (where I am) is more likely to have a month's worth of food in the pantry.
What comes next is where things start to get ugly.
POSTURE LEVEL 3: (CARBINE LOW PROFILE SETUP)
Event Timeline: Several months in
Same Battle Belt but a carbine is always on you, and an emergency reload for it comes off the belt. Even at LEVEL FOUR when I have a chest harness, this remains the first place a reload comes from.
At night, in bed... I put a Magpul 60rnd Drum in the well only because a bump in the night at this point is likely going to be responded to in my underwear and Crocs with white light.
At POSTURE LEVEL 4: I hope to be part of an OP/LP schedule and sleeping in clothes with full kit nearby, but not just yet.
If you are sporting a carbine and support gear around, things are pretty much in a condition of "Without Rule of Law" (WROL) at this point and no-one is coming to save you for sure, you are very much on your own.
There is really no such thing as a "concealed carbine" for the most part.
The best you can hope for is "discreet" carry of a carbine. With a cover garment over the Battle Belt and only the holster exposed, from a distance it's barely noticeable, same when the carbine is slung behind the back.
I see this profile being used when there is not a direct threat known to be in your AO, but things are dicey enough that the possibility of people being out poaching deer, etc. exists. Encountering people with hunting rifles or shotguns will increasingly become the norm.
The lesson here is "don't bring a pistol to a potential rifle fight!"
Life on the homestead must go on though, wood must be cut, gardens planted, etc. Which means working in your LEVEL THREE kit, as at this point people are running out of food and may be stopping by unexpectantly.
This elevated level lets them know you are not an easy target but is not meant to intimidate the non-threats in your area. Granted some people are intimidated by a harsh word these days, but you can only do what you can do.
THE NEEDS OF THE MANY
At this point, neighbors will be coming by because they have no food and are looking for a handout.
How you handle their requests is up to you, but if you turn them away and they believe you are not sharing, they might consider use of force to take what you have at a later date.
It's a horrible position to be in. You prepared a lifeboat on the Titanic, and everyone is trying to get in. There is only so much room and if you don't stop people, at some point they will flip the boat, and everyone dies. Or in this case, starves to death.
With Long-Term food storage it is hard enough to build up a year’s supply for two people and its purpose is to get you to a point where your "new normal", thank COVID for that term, is supporting yourself with your own grown food or the collapse is over.
That years’ worth of food can shrink to (4) months by adding (4) more mouths to feed, or a day if everyone on your block comes with their handout.
You should consider this issue before it's upon you though and have a plan on how to handle it, thinking through the consequences of how you plan to handle it.
When a man's children are starving because he failed to plan for them, he will do ANYTHING (including killing you) to make up for his lack of planning and see them fed. Wouldn't you?
Having a carbine at hand is a mighty big force multiplier, don't leave home without it at this point!
Learn to live with a carbine on you 24/7 NOW, so you will know what to expect and can become familiar with the issues that will come up in doing so. Practice every now and then packing your setup for a weekend.
LEVEL THREE at minimum is a battle belt and a slung AR15 with spare mag on belt.
The carbine can be put down to do work but should be only a few steps away at any time and only if you have a overwatch setup to alert you of anyone approaching or a good guard dog on the property.
POSTURE LEVEL 4: (BATTLE RATTLE)
Event Timeline: 3 Months +
This level is what you would expect to be at if the neighborhood is being attacked on a regular basis. Think ANTIFA in Portland, Oregon. WROL full speed ahead.
CHEST HARNESS CONTENT
GP POUCH
1qt Canteen
OUTSIDE POCKET
Knife sharpener
Ferro & Striker
IBU
Mini-Bic w/100mph tape
E&E Compass
30min Water Pur Tabs
OUTSIDE POCKET
Sm. R-N-R Notepad
DOUBLE EAGLE MAG CARRIER
Spead load AR15 Mag on top of roll of 88 tape
AR15 Mag
NAR TQ POUCH
CAT-T
DOUBLE EAGLE MAG CARRIER
AR15 Mag
AR15 Mag
RADIO POUCH
AR-152 Radio w/remote mic
SUREFIRE POUCH
Smoke Grenade
SLIP POUCH
Sharpie w/duct tape
PLATE CARRIER CONTENT
.30-06 AP multi-hit rated stand-alone ceramic plates.
After several months when every deer in your area has been taken for food and there is likely no more food source unless air drops are being made by ally Nations (don't hold your breath!), there will likely be people scouting out homes that look to be abandoned for remaining resources.
It's not beyond imagination that they will be armed and willing to kill at this point for any kind of food. Starvation literally makes you crazy, you should consider these people armed and dangerous because they are.
If at all possible, try make your place look as bad off as the next, blackout on the windows, light discipline, etc. but if outer appearances don't keep people off your land, you will need to discourage them with a show of force.
Observation Posts / Listening Post are a given at this point. Seeing strangers approaching at a distance gives you the reactionary gap to form a plan as well as provide over-watch for those inside the home.
STRENGTH IN NUMBERS
At this point (several months in) if you have not brought people into your inner circle to help protect your preps (you put away food for them, right?), you are one man on an island and will likely succumb to the superior numbers of those who feel they are entitled to what you spent years saving up to provide your family a chance of survival in the scenario you are now in.
Not hard to imagine people who would have called you a fool for preparing to now consider taking by force what you saved while they squandered resources for years when the writing was on the wall. Remember that when you feel the need to tell your neighbors about your preps.
Do you think that response is outside the realm of likelihood, given today's "entitlement" mentality?
At this point in time, 24/7 over-watch and OP/LP would be a must if you have the numbers to pull it off.
ARMOR OR NOT?
For me, the only time armor is going to be worn is in a defensive position when I know a fight is coming or during vehicle ops requiring a reactionary team to extract others, which is highly unlikely unless you have advanced MAG agreements.
Armor is never for patrolling! It will beat you up hard and the likelihood of a casualty from wearing it is greater than it is saving your life on a patrol.
That said, having a slick PC to don when things are dicey is never ruled out, even if it’s just to check the animals, if there are any left at this point.
Good read. Like minded for sure