Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings.[1] Consequently, individuals underestimate the likelihood of a disaster, when it might affect them, and its potential adverse effects.[2] The normalcy bias causes many people to not adequately prepare for natural disasters, market crashes, and calamities caused by human error. About 80% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.[3]
The first mistake people make when considering what they should prepare for, is not being able to envision a world without power.
Losing the electric grid in modern day America is a death sentence for most and our nation’s best minds have been practically screaming from the rooftops this message for 20+ years.
IT’S NOT A MATTER OF “IF, BUT WHEN” IT WILL HAPPEN IN THE USA.
Tommy Waller of the Center For Security Policy has been investigating the way America’s power grid is vulnerable as well as solutions to fixing those vulnerabilities for years now.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/epochtv/how-communist-china-could-imminently-cripple-americas-electric-grid-tommy-waller-5335229
FULL TRANSCRIPT HERE IN PDF FORM
Congressional Reports Prepared by: Congressional Research Service
The link above will take you to several documents warning Congress of a real and present danger to our elecrtical grid, but the document below gets to the heart of the matter.
This is not some “conspiracy website” post, this is a professionally prepared congressional hearing report by top level experts in the field.
“Blackout! Are We Prepared to Manage the Aftermath of a Cyber-Attack or Other Failure of the Electrical Grid?” (April 14, 2016)
Other impairment or failure of the grid can potentially result from attacks, terrorism, or even extremes of space weather. For example, a nuclear weapon exploded at a high altitude over the United States would cause an electromagnetic pulse which could destroy power transformers and other critical components. Similarly, a severe solar storm could have damaging impacts on power transformers. Sunspots send plasma from coronal mass ejections into space, which could interact with the Earth’s magnetic field causing ground induced currents powerful enough to overload transformers. The last major solar flare eruption in 1989 caused blackouts in the Canadian province of Quebec. Even greater solar storms occur in cycles of approximately 100 years, with major events being recorded in 1859 and 1921.
A report released by the National Research Council (NRC) in 2012 concluded that well-informed terrorists could black out a large region of the country for weeks or even months.
The NRC report further commented on the potential effects of a combined cyber and physical attack on the grid. If they could gain access, hackers could manipulate SCADA systems to disrupt the flow of electricity, transmit erroneous signals to operators, block the flow of vital information, or disable
protective systems. Cyber attacks are unlikely to cause extended outages, but if well coordinated they could magnify the damage of a physical attack. For example, a cascading outage would be aggravated if operators did not get the information to learn that it had started, or if protective devices were disabled.
The 2013 attack on the Metcalf substation in California further cast light on the physical vulnerabilities of the grid. After someone broke into a nearby underground vault to cut telephone cables, snipers opened fire on the substation, knocking out 17 large power transformers sending power to Silicon Valley. A blackout was averted by rerouting power around the substation, and local power plants had to produce more electricity. But it took the local utility 27 days to restore the substation.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC’s) chairman at the time (Jon Wellinghoff) reportedly said that “if [the attack] were widely replicated across the country, it could take down the U.S. electric grid and black out much of the country.” Recovery from a well-planned cyber and physical attack on the grid could be complicated by the cost and vulnerability of critical components. While a physical attack on transmission towers to bring down power lines could cause blackouts, the strategic destruction of a number of critical high-voltage transformers could cause long-lasting power outages. These transformers are very large, and difficult to move. A large scale attack may use up the limited inventory of spare units, and it may take months or even years to build new units. The availability of other large components, such as high-voltage circuit breakers could also hamper recovery efforts.
Unfortunately, the common trend in the industry has been to do the very minimal required to harden our power grid, because power companies are run by share holders, and there is no ROI (Return On Investement) for doing so.
As one CEO plainly put it:
Tom Fanning, a utility CEO and current cochair of the Electricity SCC, asserted that economic incentives predominated as the main factor influencing industry investment behavior. “If the rules of the market don’t reward someone for resilience, they won’t get resilience,” he said.
We see this narrative of private companies not hardening their systems as a common one and unfortunately one that will continue until the grid is Nationalized.
Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience: Countering
Russian and Other Nation-State Cyber Threats (March 16, 2022)
Because much of the nation’s critical infrastructure is
owned and operated by the private sector, implementation
of federal cybersecurity initiatives to counter nation-state
and other threats often depends upon the willingness and
ability of private-sector entities to engage with CISR-
oriented communities of interest, to make relevant
resilience investments, and to report cyber incidents
quickly—even those that may pose reputational, legal, or
regulatory consequences. Likewise, owner-operators of
vulnerable systems may have to absorb significant up-front
business costs to increase security. Owner-operators of
systems that do not meet the statutory definition of critical
infrastructure may still suffer from attacks that present
systemic risk, given the interconnectedness of such
systems
BOTTOM LINE
We are but one coordinated physical/cyber attack away from being without power in this nation according to the experts. One that could cripple us for up to a year or more.
A Grid-Down event is the worst scenario possible for a 1.5st world country like the United States, but it’s not the end of the world if you do something to prepare for it.
“But how can someone prepare such a HUGE change in life, it’s too much!”
It’s the “Elephant in the room” that can only be eaten “one bite at a time” and will not disappear if you never make that first move against it. It will not go away if you just don’t think about it.
The question for you is…
WILL YOU START PREPARING TODAY, OR HIDE IN YOUR NORMALCY BIAS?
Unfortunately, in my personal experience with co-workers I’ve made this same warning to, they chose to hide their heads in the sand. They get on board long enough to buy several thousand dollars worth of rifles and ammo, but will not put 50lbs of rice away at the cost of $45.00.
Having some basic food put away can mean the difference between life and death in a grid-down scenario. At the very least it can buy you some time.
Building a robust pantry does the same and saves you money, and can get you through many lesser events like the loss of a job. See my post below on FOOD PREPS:
GET SOLAR NOW!
Even a small solar portable solar generator will be the difference between 1800’s and 1900’s living should an even occur. Getting something now can not emphasized enough.
My small portable system is the EcoFlow RIVER Pro + 160W Portable Solar Panel at a cost of $800.00, which seems like a lot and there are many cheap Chinese systems out there for less, but trust me this is not an area to scrimp if you can afford it.
Ecoflow is top notch gear and worth every penny. If you truly can’t afford that much or need to put money into food/water first, then I recommend the EcoFlow RIVER 2 + 110W Portable Solar Panel at $400.00 as it’s a total system and quality built.
If you want to go cheaper, look at Renogy on Amazon, I’ve been using their 400W starter kit for years as my HAM Shack power setup, but this is a fixed location setup and you still have to buy batteries, so make you sure you do your homework.
Think of the USA with no power for a few minutes…
No fuel
No food transported without fuel
No jobs to go to
No internet
Chaos and no way to get information (except HAM radio)
Desperation after no food (3 months at best)
The Road that we will be on if power can not be restored is not a pretty one.
I read Ted Koppel’s ‘Lights Out’ a couple of years ago. I talked with a friend who works for a large utility in upper management. This topic really kicked my self reliance efforts into high gear